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/keyword-deep-dive

@bdb4922

Use when planning to rank for a specific keyword. The agent Googles it, reads the top 10, classifies intent, reads the top 3 competitor pages, and produces a 90-day ranking plan with intent, SERP analysis, and content recommendations.

Use this Skill: https://skilld.dev/gh/inhouseseo/superseo-skills/keyword-deep-dive

This session only. Nothing lands on disk.

referencesctr-benchmarks-by-position.md

≈1.5k tokens on demand. Your agent reads this file only when SKILL.md points to it.

CTR Benchmarks by Position

What a ranking position is actually worth in clicks, once you factor in the SERP features sitting on top of it.

Why This File Exists

Position alone doesn't tell you anything useful anymore. A position 1 on a clean SERP isn't the same as a position 1 under an AI Overview, and neither looks like a position 1 on a local-intent query with a map pack. Before you judge whether a keyword is worth chasing, you need to know what the actual click share looks like at the positions you can realistically win.

All numbers below come from First Page Sage's 2026 CTR report unless otherwise noted. First Page Sage defines a "clean" SERP as one with no maps, images, videos, or shopping results, just standard organic and paid listings. Treat the baseline column as an upper bound, not an average.

The Main Table

Position Baseline CTR (clean SERP) CTR when you hold the featured snippet CTR with AI Overview (not cited) CTR with AI Overview (cited) CTR when local pack is present
1 39.8% 42.9% ~16.7% (see note) ~22.6% (see note) 23.7%
2 18.7% 27.4% ~7.9% ~10.6% 15.1%
3 10.2% n/a ~4.3% n/a n/a
4 7.2% n/a ~3.0% n/a n/a
5 5.1% n/a ~2.1% n/a n/a
6 4.4% n/a ~1.8% n/a n/a
7 3.0% n/a ~1.3% n/a n/a
8 2.1% n/a ~0.9% n/a n/a
9 1.9% n/a ~0.8% n/a n/a
10 1.6% n/a ~0.7% n/a n/a

Featured snippet rows: First Page Sage reports 42.9% when the position 1 page also holds the snippet, and 27.4% when the position 2 page holds it (a common configuration). Losing a snippet you previously held costs 20-40% of organic clicks (First Page Sage 2026).

AI Overview rows: First Page Sage lists a direct "AIO present, Position 1" number of 38.9%, but that figure bakes in both cited and uncited pages. The harder, more honest number comes from Ahrefs' December 2025 analysis of 300,000 keywords: an AI Overview on the query correlates with a 58% drop in clicks to the top-ranking page versus the pre-AIO baseline. Applied to 39.8%, that lands position 1 near 16.7% when you're the top result sitting under an uncited AIO. Seer Interactive's September 2025 study puts the drop at 61% and reports that pages cited inside the AI Overview earn 35% more clicks than non-cited peers, which is how the "cited" column gets you back to ~22.6%. Both studies are from informational query samples, so the 58-61% drop isn't a universal constant; it's the most-studied intent class.

Local pack rows: First Page Sage reports 23.7% for position 1 and 15.1% for position 2 when a local pack sits on top. Worth noting: Backlinko's local click study, updated in BrightLocal's 2026 data, finds that 42-47% of clicks on local-intent queries go into the pack itself. If you're not in the 3-pack and the query has local intent, the organic blue links below are competing for roughly half the remaining clicks.

Mobile vs Desktop Differential

Advanced Web Ranking's Q3 2025 CTR report found position 1 desktop CTR fell by 0.99 percentage points versus Q2 2025, while mobile stayed roughly flat. More importantly, the gap between position 1 and position 2 is much wider on desktop (53.45%) than mobile (39.03%). Mobile users scroll further because the top of the SERP is taller, so the compression between positions is gentler.

Informational queries specifically: position 1 dropped 1.25 pp on mobile and position 2 gained 1.18 pp on desktop in the same report. Don't over-interpret a quarter of movement, but the trend is consistent with AI Overviews eating into the very top of the SERP on informational intent.

Zero-Click Context

Before anyone gets excited about 39.8% at position 1, remember that roughly 60% of Google searches end without any click at all (Digital Bloom 2026 Organic Traffic Crisis Report), and mobile zero-click behavior hits 77%. The CTR percentages above are shares of the clicks that happen, not shares of the searches. On a 1,000-impression keyword with a 60% zero-click rate, position 1 gives you 39.8% of 400 clicks: 159, not 398.

When CTR Data Doesn't Apply

Brand and navigational queries. Someone searching "hubspot login" or "mailchimp pricing" is looking for a specific page they already know exists. Position 1 CTR on pure navigational queries typically sits between 50% and 80% depending on sitelinks and SERP layout (aggregated across industry studies). Don't apply the 39.8% baseline to keywords where your own brand is in the search string. You'll underestimate your click share and misread the opportunity.

Extremely high-intent transactional queries. "Buy X" type queries compress the CTR curve because users are hunting for a very specific page type. Position 1 often outperforms the baseline, and positions 4-10 often underperform because users bounce back to try a better match.

Very low-volume long-tail. Sub-10 monthly impression keywords don't behave like the averages. One user can be 100% CTR or 0% CTR on any given day. Don't forecast these with the table.

How to Use This File in a Keyword Deep Dive

  1. Identify which SERP features are present on the keyword's SERP (see serp-features-recognition.md).
  2. Pick the column that matches the SERP reality, not the baseline.
  3. Apply the zero-click discount for informational intent before you estimate traffic.
  4. Cross-reference with zero-click-and-aio-impact.md if the SERP has an AI Overview. The answer for whether the keyword is still worth targeting depends on whether you can get cited inside it.

Source: SKILL.md on GitHub

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    The skill is an SEO research tool that performs Google searches and fetches competitor web pages. This functionality creates a vulnerability surface for indirect prompt injection, where malicious instructions on external sites could influence the agent. No active malicious behavior or unauthorized code execution was detected.

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