Market Indicators Reference
Major Stock Indices
Japan
Nikkei 225: Stock price average of 225 representative stocks on Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime
- Key levels: 30,000, 35,000, 40,000 yen
- Moving averages: Emphasize 25-day, 75-day, 200-day lines
TOPIX: Market-cap weighted average of all Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime stocks
- Better reflects overall market
- Heavily influenced by banking/financial sector
United States
S&P 500: 500 large-cap US stocks
- Most representative US stock index
- Key levels: 4,000, 4,500, 5,000 points
NASDAQ: Tech-focused
- Reflects mega-cap tech stock trends like GAFAM
- Higher volatility
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Simple average of 30 stocks
- Historically significant but limited representation
Foreign Exchange Rates
USD/JPY (Dollar-Yen)
- Greatest impact on Japanese economy
- Key levels: 140, 145, 150, 155 yen
- BOJ intervention alert line: Reference past intervention records
EUR/JPY (Euro-Yen)
- Related to European economy
- Influenced by ECB policy
CNY/JPY (Yuan-Yen)
- Reflects Chinese economic trends
- Indicator of Asian trade
Volatility Indicators
VIX Index (Fear Index)
- Calculated from S&P 500 option prices
- Quantifies market anxiety psychology
- Interpretation:
- 10-15: Low volatility, stable market
- 15-20: Normal range
- 20-30: Unstable, caution needed
- 30+: High stress, panic selling
Nikkei VI
- Volatility indicator for Nikkei Average
- Japanese version of VIX
Commodities
Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
- Important as inflation indicator
- Reflects geopolitical risks
- Key levels: 70, 80, 90, 100 dollars/barrel
Gold
- Representative safe asset
- Tends to rise during dollar weakness/inflation
- Key levels: 1,900, 2,000, 2,100 dollars/ounce
Interest Rates & Bonds
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
- Most critical interest rate indicator
- Direct impact on stock valuations
- Key levels: 3.5%, 4.0%, 4.5%, 5.0%
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
- Reflects BOJ policy
- Watch YCC target range
Sector-Specific Focus Points
Technology
- AI-related stock trends
- Semiconductor cycle
- Regulatory risks
Financials
- Heavily influenced by interest rate trends
- Bank lending attitudes
- Non-performing loan ratios
Energy
- Linked to crude oil prices
- Impact of decarbonization policies
- Renewable energy shift
Consumer
- Consumer confidence index
- Retail sales
- Inflation impact