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Catalyst Taxonomy
Upside and Downside Catalyst Labels
| Label |
Use when |
EARNINGS_REVALUATION |
Earnings, revenue, EPS, margin, or business results triggered a major repricing |
GUIDANCE_RAISE |
Management raised outlook, forecast, or long-term targets |
M&A |
Acquisition, merger, takeover, buyout, strategic alternative, or asset sale |
FDA_CLINICAL |
FDA, clinical trial, PDUFA, approval, rejection, or biotech study data |
CONTRACT_ORDER |
Large contract, government award, partnership, supply agreement, or major customer win |
ANALYST_UPGRADE |
Analyst upgrade, initiation, or material target-price change |
SHORT_SQUEEZE |
Short-interest, low float, borrow stress, squeeze narrative, or forced covering appears central |
THEME_SYMPATHY |
Move is primarily linked to a broader sector or theme cluster |
CAPITAL_STRUCTURE |
Offering, warrant, reverse split, convertible, ATM, recapitalization, or dilution issue |
LOW_FLOAT_SPECULATION |
Low-float / low-liquidity speculative burst without durable fundamental evidence |
NO_CLEAR_NEWS |
No structured catalyst is available or the move is price-only at the time of classification |
Classification Rules
- Prefer structured catalyst data over price-only inference.
- Use
NO_CLEAR_NEWS rather than hallucinating a catalyst.
- Keep
confidence low when the text source is weak, vague, or stale.
- Classify the first-order catalyst, not every related news item.
- Allow human override in
human_review.label_override when manual research finds a better label.
Theme Context
Theme fields are separate from catalyst labels. A stock can be EARNINGS_REVALUATION and still belong to an AI infrastructure cluster. Use THEME_SYMPATHY only when the theme itself appears to be the primary driver.
Risk Flags Often Associated With Catalysts
| Catalyst |
Common risk |
FDA_CLINICAL |
Binary-event reversal after data details are digested |
SHORT_SQUEEZE |
Violent reversal and borrow/locate constraints |
CAPITAL_STRUCTURE |
Dilution, warrant overhang, reverse-split distortions |
LOW_FLOAT_SPECULATION |
Low liquidity, wide spreads, gap risk |
NO_CLEAR_NEWS |
Unexplained move, rumor risk, poor repeatability |