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Catalyst Quality Scoring
The analyzer assigns a 35-point catalyst component from the event type, text clues, and optional upstream grades.
High-Quality Catalysts
| Catalyst |
Why It Matters |
| Guidance raise / beat-and-raise |
Suggests the market's forward estimates may be too low |
| FDA approval / Phase 3 success |
Can change revenue trajectory for smaller biotech names |
| First major earnings acceleration |
Can trigger institutional discovery |
| Major contract or customer win |
Can validate product-market fit or revenue visibility |
| Regulatory approval |
Can remove a major uncertainty or unlock a market |
Medium / Context-Dependent Catalysts
| Catalyst |
Caveat |
| M&A |
Often caps upside around the deal price; useful but may not trend |
| Product launch |
Needs proof of adoption or demand |
| Partnership |
Quality depends on partner credibility and economics |
| Short squeeze |
Can be powerful but fragile and liquidity-sensitive |
Lower-Quality Catalysts
| Catalyst |
Caveat |
| Analyst upgrade |
Usually weaker unless it confirms a true inflection |
| Story/theme only |
Can run quickly but often reverses quickly without fundamentals |
| Vague news |
Must be downgraded unless price/volume confirmation is exceptional |
Negative Text Deductions
Events mentioning dilution, secondary offering, investigation, lawsuit, resignation, downgrade, or similar adverse language should be treated cautiously even when price initially reacts well.
Manual Review Questions
- Is this a one-day headline or a durable revaluation?
- Is the event surprising relative to what the market already expected?
- Does the event change revenue, earnings, TAM, survival odds, or investor sponsorship?
- Is the stock already very extended before the event?
- Can the EP-day low be used as a realistic stop?
