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by Seth Hobsonwshobson/agents40k stars
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Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.

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SKILL.md

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Market Sizing Analysis

Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.

Overview

Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).

Core Concepts

The Three-Tier Market Framework

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
  • Defines the universe of potential customers
  • Used for long-term vision and market validation
  • Example: All email marketing software revenue globally

SAM (Serviceable Available Market)

  • Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
  • Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
  • Represents realistic addressable opportunity
  • Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
  • Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
  • Used for financial projections and fundraising
  • Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape

When to Use Each Methodology

Top-Down Analysis

  • Use when established market research exists
  • Best for mature, well-defined markets
  • Validates market existence and growth
  • Starts with industry reports and narrows down

Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Use when targeting specific customer segments
  • Best for new or niche markets
  • Most credible for investors
  • Builds from customer data and pricing

Value Theory

  • Use when creating new market categories
  • Best for disruptive innovations
  • Estimates based on value creation
  • Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution

Detailed patterns and worked examples

Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.

Source: SKILL.md on GitHub

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Provenance

Signed by skilld at be57c0b. This ties the file your Agent reads to that commit on GitHub. It does not review the instructions.

Last checked against GitHub 3 days ago.

Activeupdated 4 months ago

Capability

version
1.0.0

Topics

  • market-sizing
  • tam
  • sam
  • som
  • startup
  • business-planning
  • fundraising
  • market-analysis
  • go-to-market

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What it does

Calculates TAM, SAM, and SOM for startup market opportunities using top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment), and value theory (willingness to pay) methodologies. Designed for market validation, fundraising pitch decks, and business planning when sizing addressable revenue for a new venture.

Generated from the current SKILL.md.

Frequently asked

What are TAM, SAM, and SOM?
TAM is the total revenue opportunity at 100% market share; SAM is the portion of TAM your product can realistically reach given geographic or segment constraints; SOM is the realistic market share (typically 2-5%) achievable in 3-5 years.
Which methodology should I use for a new market category?
Use value theory methodology, which estimates willingness to pay based on the value created by solving a specific problem. This approach works best for disruptive innovations where established market research doesn't exist.
When is bottom-up analysis more credible than top-down?
Bottom-up analysis is more credible for investors when targeting specific customer segments or entering niche markets, because it builds from actual customer data and pricing rather than relying on industry reports.
Can I use these methodologies together?
Yes. The skill describes three complementary methodologies — top-down, bottom-up, and value theory — designed to be used together for comprehensive market validation.

Generated from the current SKILL.md. These answers refresh after source changes.