/porters-five-forces

Porter's Five Forces Template

Copy this to record an evidence-cited five-forces read. Every rating must survive "how do you know?" — a weak/moderate/strong call without documented signals is vibes wearing a framework. The profit-pool close is the analysis; everything above it is evidence assembly.

Label every signal Fact (cited), Inference (basis shown), or Assumption (needs validation). Two to four signals per force is Just Enough Mode.

Template

# Five Forces: [Industry / Segment]
**As-of date:** [YYYY-MM-DD]
**Boundary:** [geography or segment limits, if structure differs by region]
**Decision supported:** [the decision this analysis informs]

## 1. Competitive Rivalry — [weak / moderate / strong]
- Signals: [concentration, growth rate, differentiation, exit barriers — each with URL + label]
- What it means here: [one sentence]

## 2. Threat of New Entrants — [weak / moderate / strong]
- Signals: [entry barriers, capital needs, recent entrants and how they fared, regulation — each with URL + label]
- What it means here: [one sentence]

## 3. Threat of Substitutes — [weak / moderate / strong]
- Signals: [substitute adoption, price-performance trajectory, switching evidence — each with URL + label]
- AI-driven substitution, named and assessed: [always — even when the rating is "weak, for now"] — [label]
- What it means here: [one sentence]

## 4. Buyer Power — [weak / moderate / strong]
- Signals: [buyer concentration, switching costs, price transparency, backward-integration examples — URL + label]
- What it means here: [one sentence]

## 5. Supplier Power — [weak / moderate / strong]
- Signals: [supplier concentration — including cloud, model, and platform dependencies — input differentiation — URL + label]
- What it means here: [one sentence]

## 6. The Profit Pool (the "so what")
- Where margin sits today, and the force squeezing it: [labeled]
- Structure trend: [tightening / loosening, on what evidence]
- For your decision: [2 sentences tying structure to the decision named above]

### Assumptions to Validate
- [Assumption 1]
- [Assumption 2]
- [Assumption 3]

Quality checks before you call it done

• Every rating has at least two documented signals — no force rated on how crowded it "feels"
• AI-driven substitution is explicitly assessed in force 3, whatever the rating
• Supplier power includes platform/cloud/model dependencies, not just traditional inputs
• The profit-pool close answers "where does margin go?" — five rated forces with no close is a diagram, not an analysis
• If the category is nascent and forces haven't formed, the document says "still forming" instead of rating noise