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/scenario-analyzer

@2a3359f
by tradermontytradermonty/claude-trading-skills2.9k stars
663

Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline. Runs the primary analysis with the scenario-analyst agent and obtains a second opinion with the strategy-reviewer agent. Generates a comprehensive English report covering 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts, recommended stocks, and a critical review. Example: /scenario-analyzer "Fed raises rates by 50bp" Triggers: news analysis, scenario analysis, 18-month outlook, medium-to-long-term investment strategy

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Use this Skill: https://skilld.dev/gh/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/scenario-analyzer

This session only. Nothing lands on disk.

referencessector_sensitivity_matrix.md

≈2.4k tokens on demand. Your agent reads this file only when SKILL.md points to it.

Sector Sensitivity Matrix

This reference organizes sector-by-sector sensitivity to various event types in matrix form. Use it during scenario analysis to quickly judge which sectors are most likely to be affected.

Legend

Impact:

  • ++ : Strong positive impact
  • + : Positive impact
  • 0 : Neutral / minor impact
  • - : Negative impact
  • -- : Strong negative impact

Confidence:

  • H : High (past patterns are consistent)
  • M : Medium (situation-dependent)
  • L : Low (high uncertainty)

1. Monetary Policy Event Matrices

Rate-Hike Environment

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Financials (banks) + H JPM, BAC, WFC Higher net interest income
Financials (insurance) + M MET, PRU, AIG Improved investment income
Technology - H AAPL, MSFT, NVDA High-valuation discount
Consumer Discretionary - H AMZN, HD, NKE Higher borrowing costs
Real Estate (REIT) -- H AMT, PLD, EQIX Rate-sensitive, higher funding costs
Utilities - H NEE, DUK, SO Reduced appeal as a bond substitute
Healthcare 0 M UNH, JNJ, PFE Relatively defensive
Consumer Staples 0 M PG, KO, WMT Relatively defensive
Energy 0 L XOM, CVX, COP Macro-environment dependent
Materials - M LIN, APD, ECL Economically sensitive
Industrials - M CAT, DE, HON Capex-slowdown concern
Communication Services 0 M GOOGL, META, DIS Idiosyncratic factors dominate

Rate-Cut Environment

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Technology ++ H AAPL, MSFT, NVDA Growth-stock valuation expansion
Real Estate (REIT) ++ H AMT, PLD, EQIX Lower funding costs
Utilities + H NEE, DUK, SO Relatively more attractive dividend yield
Consumer Discretionary + H AMZN, HD, NKE Consumption stimulus
Financials (banks) - H JPM, BAC, WFC Lower net interest income
Healthcare 0 M UNH, JNJ, PFE Relatively defensive
Consumer Staples 0 M PG, KO, WMT Relatively defensive
Energy 0 L XOM, CVX, COP Macro-environment dependent

2. Geopolitical Event Matrices

War / Armed Conflict

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Defense ++ H LMT, RTX, NOC, GD Higher military spending
Energy + H XOM, CVX, COP Prices rise on supply concerns
Gold (miners) ++ H NEM, GOLD, AEM Safe-asset demand
Airlines -- H DAL, UAL, AAL Fuel costs, weaker demand
Travel & Leisure -- H MAR, HLT, BKNG Demand decline
Insurance - M AIG, TRV, ALL Geopolitical-risk reserves
Semiconductors - M NVDA, AMD, INTC Supply-chain risk
Shipping +/- L ZIM, DAC, MATX Impact differs by route dependence

Tariffs / Trade Friction (vs. China)

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Semiconductors (equipment) -- H AMAT, LRCX, KLAC China-market restrictions
Consumer goods (China-dependent) - H NKE, AAPL Impact on both manufacturing and sales
Agriculture - H DE, ADM, BG Lower exports to China
Mexico-production companies + M - Supply-chain substitution benefit
Domestic manufacturers + M - Onshoring benefit

3. Regulation & Policy Change Matrices

Tighter Environmental Regulation

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Renewables (solar) ++ H ENPH, SEDG, FSLR Expanded policy support
Renewables (wind) ++ H NEE, AES Expanded policy support
EV ++ H TSLA, RIVN, LCID Demand increase from regulation
Lithium / batteries ++ H ALB, LTHM Tied to EV demand
Oil & gas -- H XOM, CVX, COP Stranded-asset risk
Coal -- H - Accelerated fade-out
Airlines - M DAL, UAL, AAL SAF-mandate cost
Automakers (legacy) - M F, GM EV-transition cost

Tighter Financial Regulation

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Large banks - H JPM, BAC, C Higher capital requirements, profit pressure
Regional banks -- H - Heavy regulatory-cost burden
Fintech +/- M SQ, PYPL Benefit/hurt depending on regulation
Crypto-asset related - M COIN Regulatory uncertainty

Tighter Antitrust

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Big Tech - M GOOGL, META, AMZN, AAPL Business-breakup risk
Telecom - M T, VZ M&A-blocking risk
Small/mid tech + M - Improved competitive-environment benefit

4. Technology Shift Matrices

Accelerating AI Revolution

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Semiconductors (GPU) ++ H NVDA, AMD AI training/inference chip demand
Semiconductors (memory) ++ H MU, WDC HBM demand
Cloud infrastructure ++ H MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL Provides AI foundation
Enterprise SW + H CRM, NOW, ADBE AI feature integration
Data-center REIT ++ H EQIX, DLR Surging demand
Utilities + M NEE, SO Data-center power demand
BPO / outsourcing -- M - Replacement by AI automation

Accelerating EV Adoption

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
EV manufacturing ++ H TSLA, RIVN Market expansion
Battery / lithium ++ H ALB, LTHM, LAC Material demand
Charging infrastructure ++ H CHPT, BLNK Infrastructure investment
Utilities + M NEE, SO Higher power demand
Legacy automakers - M F, GM Transition cost
Auto parts (engines) -- H - Demand-structure change
Oil refining - M VLO, PSX Lower gasoline demand

5. Commodity Shock Matrices

Crude Oil Price Spike ($100+/bbl)

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Oil majors ++ H XOM, CVX, COP Surging profits
Shale companies ++ H PXD, EOG, DVN Large improvement in economics
Oilfield services ++ H SLB, HAL, BKR Increased drilling activity
Airlines -- H DAL, UAL, AAL Sharply higher fuel costs
Transportation -- H UPS, FDX Higher fuel costs
Chemicals - H DOW, LYB Higher feedstock costs
Consumer goods - M Broad Lower consumer purchasing power

Crude Oil Price Crash ($50-/bbl)

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Oil majors -- H XOM, CVX, COP Lower profits, capex cuts
Shale companies -- H PXD, EOG, DVN Below-breakeven risk
Airlines ++ H DAL, UAL, AAL Lower fuel costs
Consumer goods + M Broad Higher disposable income
Chemicals + M DOW, LYB Lower feedstock costs

Gold Price Spike

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Gold miners ++ H NEM, GOLD, AEM Leverage effect
Silver miners ++ H PAAS, AG, HL Precious-metals linkage
Jewelry 0 M SIG, TIF Demand decline offset by higher inventory value

6. Economic Cycle Matrices

Economic Expansion

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Technology ++ H AAPL, MSFT, NVDA Higher corporate IT spending
Consumer Discretionary ++ H AMZN, HD, NKE Consumption expansion
Industrials ++ H CAT, DE, HON Higher capex
Materials + H LIN, APD, FCX Higher demand
Financials + H JPM, BAC, GS Credit expansion, active M&A

Economic Recession

Sector Impact Confidence Representative tickers Notes
Consumer Staples + H PG, KO, WMT Defensive
Healthcare + H UNH, JNJ, PFE Non-discretionary spending
Utilities + H NEE, DUK, SO Stable dividends
Consumer Discretionary -- H AMZN, HD, NKE Discretionary-spending cuts
Industrials -- H CAT, DE, HON Capex freeze
Financials - H JPM, BAC Rising loan-loss concerns

How to Use

  1. Identify the event type: Judge the event category from the headline
  2. Refer to the relevant matrix: Select the appropriate matrix above
  3. Check impact and confidence: Understand the impact per sector
  4. Use representative tickers as a starting point: As the basis for deeper analysis
  5. For compound scenarios, refer to multiple matrices: Integrate multiple matrices when several events are involved

Caveats

  • Single-stock situation: Sector impact and single-stock impact can differ
  • Timing: Distinguish immediate impact from delayed impact
  • Scale: Impact magnitude varies with the scale of the event
  • Degree of market pricing-in: If the market has already priced it in, the reaction is limited

Source: SKILL.md on GitHub

Third-party checks

2 warnings16d5 checks · Risk SAFE
  • Gen Agent Trust Hub16d

    The skill is safe. It outlines an orchestrator workflow that uses specialized subagents to analyze investment scenarios based on news headlines. No malicious patterns, obfuscation, or unauthorized access vectors were detected.

  • Socket16d

    No alerts

  • Snyk16d

    Risk: MEDIUM · 1 issue

  • Runlayer7mo

    4/4 files flagged

  • ZeroLeaks5mo

    Score: 93/100 · 2 sections analyzed

Provenance

Signed by skilld at 2a3359f. This ties the file your Agent reads to that commit on GitHub. It does not review the instructions.

Last checked against GitHub 20 hours ago.

Activeupdated 5 months ago

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