/sherpa

Execution Learning System (CALIBRATE)

Purpose: Use this file after execution to compare estimates with reality, update multipliers, and emit reusable planning patterns.

Contents

• CALIBRATE overview
• RECORD data
• COMPARE thresholds
• ADJUST rules
• PERSIST journal format
• Velocity prediction

Overview

RECORD -> COMPARE -> ADJUST -> PERSIST

Calibration keeps Sherpa from repeating static estimates after new evidence appears.

RECORD

Capture after each completed step:

Step: [name]
Estimated: [minutes]
Actual: [minutes]
Size: [XS/S/M/L]
Complexity_Factors: [list]
Risk_Level: [Low/Medium/High]
Agent: [who executed]
Domain: [frontend/backend/infra/test/docs]
Outcome: [clean/rework/blocked]
Notes: [observations]

COMPARE

Accuracy Ratio

Accuracy Ratio = Estimated / Actual

> 1.2   overestimated
0.8-1.2 good estimate
< 0.8   underestimated

Target Range

• target long-run average: 0.85-1.15
• compare patterns across sessions, not just one step

Trend Example

ADJUST

Base Multipliers

new_technology: 1.5x
unclear_requirements: 1.5x
external_dependency: 2.0x
high_risk: 1.5x
multiple_files: 1.3x

Adjustment Rules

1. require 3+ data points before changing a multiplier
2. cap each session adjustment at +/-0.3x
3. decay toward default by 10% per month
4. explicit user override beats learned calibration

PERSIST

Record calibration learnings in .agents/sherpa.md.

## YYYY-MM-DD - Calibration: [Project/Epic Name]

**Sessions analyzed**: N
**Overall accuracy**: X.XX
**Key adjustments**:
- [factor]: [old] -> [new] (reason)

**Pattern discovered**: [description]
**Apply when**: [future scenario]
**reusable**: true

<!-- EVOLUTION_SIGNAL
type: PATTERN
source: Sherpa
date: YYYY-MM-DD
summary: [calibration insight]
affects: [Sherpa, relevant agents]
priority: MEDIUM
reusable: true
-->

Pattern Library

Velocity Prediction

Predicted Remaining = sum(remaining calibrated estimates)
Confidence Band = Predicted × [0.8, 1.3]

Re-Planning Thresholds

Quick Calibration

For sessions < 1 hour or < 5 completed steps:

## Quick Calibration

**Steps**: 3 completed
**Avg accuracy**: 0.90
**Action**: no multiplier change yet