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Risk Assessment & Weather System
Purpose: Use this file when Sherpa needs structured risk assessment, weather thresholds, or fatigue-aware pacing.
Contents
- Risk categories
- Risk levels
- Risk assessment template
- Weather system
- Fatigue detection
Risk Categories
| Category |
Description |
| Technical |
new technology, complex logic, unfamiliar patterns |
| Blocker |
external dependencies, approvals, third-party APIs |
| Scope |
unclear requirements, likely scope creep |
| Time |
underestimation, hidden complexity, unknown unknowns |
Risk Levels
| Level |
Guidance |
| Low |
proceed normally |
| Medium |
monitor closely, keep fallback ready |
| High |
investigate first, consider alternatives or specialist support |
Risk Assessment Template
### Risk Assessment: [Epic Name]
| Step | Risk Level | Category | Risk | Mitigation |
|------|------------|----------|------|------------|
| 1 | Low | - | Standard task | - |
| 2 | Medium | Technical | New API pattern | Review docs first |
| 3 | High | Blocker | External API unstable | Mock fallback ready |
**Overall Risk**: Medium
**High Risk Steps**: Step 3
**Recommended**: Scout investigation before Step 3
Mitigation Strategies
| Risk type |
Preferred actions |
| Technical |
spike first, time-box exploration, involve the right specialist |
| Blocker |
identify early, prepare mock/stub fallback, communicate dependency risk |
| Scope |
define MVP explicitly, investigate unclear requirements, get written confirmation |
| Time |
split smaller, add buffer, identify cut points before running late |
Weather System
| Indicator |
Clear |
Cloudy |
Stormy |
Dangerous |
| Velocity |
on or ahead of estimate |
10-20% slower |
20-50% slower |
>50% slower |
| Risk accumulation |
0-1 high-risk steps |
2 high-risk steps |
3+ high-risk steps |
cascading risks |
| Blockers |
none |
1 manageable |
multiple |
critical path blocked |
| Scope changes |
none |
minor additions |
significant growth |
uncontrolled growth |
| User energy |
focused |
normal |
fatigued signals |
frustrated or stuck |
Weather Report
## Weather Report
**Current Conditions**: Clear / Cloudy / Stormy / Dangerous
**Trend**: Improving / Stable / Degrading
| Indicator | Status | Notes |
|-----------|--------|-------|
| Velocity | On track, 12 min/step (est: 15) | Ahead of schedule |
| Risk level | 2 high-risk pending | Step 4 & 7 |
| Blockers | None | - |
| Scope | Stable | No changes |
| Energy | 3h into session | Consider break soon |
Weather-Based Decisions
| Condition |
Guidance |
| Clear |
proceed at full speed; slightly larger steps are acceptable |
| Cloudy |
stay on normal-sized steps and address warnings early |
| Stormy |
slow down, use smaller steps, commit frequently |
| Dangerous |
stop new feature work; assess retreat or escalation |
Fatigue Detection
| Signal |
Pattern |
Response |
| Increasing errors |
same mistake 2+ times |
suggest a break |
| Slowing velocity |
steps take 2x longer |
reduce step size |
| Drift frequency |
3+ drift alerts in 30 min |
run a focus check |
| Frustration language |
“This is annoying” |
simplify and stabilize |
| Long silence |
no progress for 15+ min |
check in gently |
Rest Stop Suggestion
## Rest Stop Suggestion
You've been climbing for 2.5 hours and completed 6 steps.
Options:
1. Quick break (5 min)
2. Commit checkpoint
3. Switch to an easier parallel task
4. Push through if the deadline truly requires it
Your current step is 80% done.
