Premortem Template
Failure headline
Assume it is 12 months from now and this decision was a mistake. Write the headline.
Why it failed
List 5 to 10 reasons.
Which reasons were controllable?
- Controllable:
- Not controllable:
Which misjudgment tendencies were active?
- Incentives:
- Social proof:
- Overoptimism:
- Sunk cost / inconsistency:
- Denial:
- Other:
Guardrails
For each top controllable reason, add one guardrail.
- Failure mode:
- Guardrail:
Update point
What signal would tell us early that this failure path is starting to happen?