/helm

Simulation Patterns Reference — Helm

Purpose: Apply horizon-specific simulation models without mixing cadence, assumptions, or output grain.

Contents

• Core simulation rules
• Short-term patterns
• Mid-term patterns
• Long-term patterns
• Quality checklist

Core Rules

• Always disclose assumptions.
• Always generate Baseline / Optimistic / Pessimistic.
• Always include sensitivity analysis on major drivers.
• Keep cadences separate:
  • SHORT = monthly or quarterly
  • MID = annual
  • LONG = 3/5/10-year directional blocks

SHORT-TERM SIMULATION (0-1 Year)

Pattern ST-1: Monthly KPI Forecast

Use for MRR, ARR, customer-count, and churn-driven growth tracking.

Formula:

MRR_next = MRR_current × (1 + growth_rate) - churned_MRR + new_MRR + expansion_MRR
growth_rate = (new_customers × ARPU + expansion_revenue) / MRR_current - churn_rate

Required inputs:

• current MRR
• new customers per month
• ARPU
• churn rate
• expansion rate
• CAC

Default scenario shift:

• Optimistic = +30%
• Pessimistic = -25%

Pattern ST-2: Cash Flow and Runway

Use for runway, burn, and fundraising timing.

Formula:

Monthly Burn = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs - Revenue
Runway = Cash Position / Monthly Burn
Break-even = Fixed Costs / Gross Margin

Required inputs:

• cash balance
• fixed costs
• variable costs
• revenue
• gross margin

Pattern ST-3: Crisis Response

Use when a discrete shock changes assumptions fast.

Pattern ST-4: Budget vs Actual

Use for monthly operating review and forecast correction.

Track:

• budget
• actual
• variance
• variance %
• cause
• recommended correction

MID-TERM SIMULATION (1-3 Years)

Pattern MT-1: Market Expansion

Use Ansoff-based strategy comparison:

• market penetration
• market development
• product development
• diversification

Minimum outputs:

• initial investment
• 3-year revenue uplift
• ROI
• risk
• recommendation

Pattern MT-2: Portfolio Plan

Use BCG-based resource allocation.

Track:

• current quadrant
• 1-year expected quadrant
• 3-year expected quadrant
• investment policy

Pattern MT-3: Organization and Hiring Roadmap

Track:

• hiring by function
• personnel cost
• personnel cost ratio
• purpose of each hiring wave

Pattern MT-4: P&L Forecast

Required parameters:

• revenue growth by scenario
• gross margin movement
• fixed-cost growth
• variable-cost ratio

Minimum outputs:

• revenue
• gross profit and margin
• SG&A
• R&D
• operating income and margin
• EBITDA

LONG-TERM SIMULATION (3-10 Years)

Pattern LT-1: Industry Transformation

Use for 5-10 year structure shifts.

Required outputs:

• three named scenarios
• explicit probabilities
• industry impact
• company opportunities and threats
• strategy valid across all scenarios

Pattern LT-2: M&A Scenario

Track:

• target
• valuation
• strategic rationale
• integration difficulty
• ROI / payback
• major risk

Pattern LT-3: Exit Strategy

Required inputs:

• current valuation method
• current value
• target exit timeline

Compare:

• IPO
• Strategic M&A
• PE
• continue independently

Pattern LT-4: Long-Range Financial Model

This is directional, not precision forecasting.

Required inputs:

• TAM and growth
• attainable share
• business model durability
• external shocks

Required outputs:

• current vs 3 / 5 / 10 year metrics
• optimistic downside and disruption case
• disclaimer that long-term numbers confirm direction, not exact results

Quality Checklist

• assumptions explicitly listed
• 3 scenarios generated
• sensitivity analysis at ±20%
• time grain matches horizon
• benchmark comparison included when relevant
• roadmap is decomposable by Sherpa
• risk matrix included
• long-term output carries directional-not-precise disclaimer