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by shingo imotasimota/agent-skills85 stars
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Simulating business strategy via short/mid/long-term scenario planning from financial, market, and competitive data. Applies SWOT/PESTLE/Porter, KPI forecasting, roadmaps. Does not write code.

Use this Skill: https://skilld.dev/gh/simota/agent-skills/helm

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referencewardley-mapping.md

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Wardley Mapping Reference

Purpose: Apply Simon Wardley's value-chain and evolution mapping to visualize the strategic landscape. A Wardley Map plots components on two axes — anchored at user needs (value) and charted across evolution (genesis → custom → product → commodity) — to expose strategic choices, inertia, and climatic patterns.

Scope Boundary

  • helm wardley: Simon Wardley value-chain + evolution mapping (this document).
  • helm porter (elsewhere): Industry structure analysis. Porter is static; Wardley is evolutionary.
  • helm jtbd (elsewhere): Customer-job reframing. Wardley starts with user needs and traces the chain backwards.
  • helm blue-ocean (elsewhere): New market creation. Wardley reveals where on the map to create new space.
  • Atlas (elsewhere): Software architecture. Wardley is strategic; Atlas is structural.
  • Magi (elsewhere): Go/No-Go decision. Wardley provides the terrain for Magi's deliberation.

Core Concepts

Map vs Graph

A map has position and direction. A typical "architecture diagram" is a graph — nodes and edges without meaningful position. Wardley Maps add two axes:

  • Y-axis (value chain): visible to user at top; supporting components at bottom. Anchored at user need.
  • X-axis (evolution): Genesis → Custom → Product (+ rental) → Commodity (+ utility). Direction of evolution is left-to-right.
   Value      User Need
   (visible)  ┼─────────────── A  (visible component)
              │               ╱│
              │              ╱ │
              │             B  │  (custom-built)
              │            ╱│  │
              │           C │ D│  (products / rental)
   Invisible  │          ╱  │  │
              ┼──────────E──F──G── (commodity / utility)
                        │   │  │
                        ▼   ▼  ▼
         Genesis    Custom  Product  Commodity
              ←──── Evolution ────→

Each component's position encodes its evolutionary stage; each dependency encodes the value chain.

Four Evolution Stages

Stage Definition Examples Characteristics
Genesis Novel, chaotic, rare, uncertain Early research, new invention Wonder, gamble, high cost, high variance
Custom-built Unique per user, bespoke, limited copies Early product attempts, consulting builds Emerging understanding, high labor, learning phase
Product (+ rental) Repeatable product / service with multiple vendors Off-the-shelf software, subscriptions Feature comparison, competition on differentiation
Commodity (+ utility) Undifferentiated, cost-of-doing-business Electricity, S3 storage, HTTP Competition on cost/operational excellence, standardized

Direction of evolution is one-way: components move right, not left. Attempting to "reinvent" a commodity as custom is usually strategic suicide.

Characteristics by Stage

Characteristic Genesis Custom Product Commodity
Ubiquity rare uncommon common ubiquitous
Certainty uncertain emerging stable standard
Customer-perceived value variable high moderate low (assumed)
Failure mode fatal / breakthrough feature miss losing race commodity margin squeeze
Appropriate methodology experimental agile lean / continuous improvement Six Sigma / Ops
Appropriate structure Pioneer Settler Town Planner Town Planner
Culture speculative value-creation efficient delivery extreme efficiency

Wardley's Pioneer / Settler / Town Planner (PST) organizational model maps which teams own which stage.

Climatic Patterns

The map reveals universal patterns. Use these to interrogate any position.

Core patterns

  • Everything evolves: all components drift rightward over time.
  • Efficiency enables innovation: commoditizing one layer liberates investment higher up.
  • Inertia grows with ubiquity: users and organizations resist commoditization of familiar products.
  • Higher-order systems create new sources of worth: once X commoditizes, Y built on top of X becomes a new genesis.
  • Past success breeds inertia: the winning custom-build position becomes the chain to break.
  • Red Queen effect: standing still = losing ground (competitors evolve).
  • No component is static: if you don't migrate, someone will eat your position.

Doctrine (Universal Principles)

Irrespective of context, good strategy applies these:

  1. Focus on user needs.
  2. Use a common language (maps).
  3. Be transparent — share the map.
  4. Challenge assumptions — is the component really at that stage?
  5. Remove duplication — multiple teams building the same custom thing.
  6. Use appropriate methodology per stage.
  7. Think small (teams, contracts, services).
  8. Use standards where appropriate — especially for commodities.
  9. Design for constant evolution — every commodity was once a genesis.

Gameplay / Strategic Moves

Wardley catalogs dozens of "gameplays." Key families:

Family Examples When appropriate
Accelerator Open source a component, sponsor competition Force commoditization of adjacent component
Decelerator FUD, patents, licensing, regulation Slow competitor evolution
Market Pricing, differentiation, geography Shape demand
Ecosystem Platform + third-party innovation (ILC: innovate-leverage-commoditize) Extract signal from the edge
Defensive Exit, retirement, sunset Recognize when a position is indefensible
Attack Fool's mate (attack an inert competitor) When competitor has inertia

ILC loop (classic Wardley pattern)

Innovate internally → Leverage the ecosystem that forms around you → Commoditize the successful piece, freeing the next layer.

AWS did this: launched S3/EC2 → ecosystem built products on top → AWS folded successful abstractions (Lambda, Aurora) back down to commodity.

Workflow

ANCHOR      →  identify the user need (who + what job)
            →  not "customer" (internal user, admin, ops are users too)

CHAIN       →  list components required to deliver that need
            →  include tech + data + people + processes

POSITION    →  place each component at the right evolutionary stage
            →  consider: ubiquity, certainty, comparable-market evidence

DRAW        →  plot value chain vertically (user at top)
            →  plot evolution horizontally
            →  draw dependencies (chain edges)

SCAN-CLIMATE→  identify inertia, duplication, stage mismatches
            →  spot higher-order-system opportunities
            →  note competitor positions on same map

APPLY       →  apply doctrine (focus, remove duplication, right methodology per stage)
            →  select gameplays (accelerator/decelerator/ecosystem/attack)

DECIDE      →  make strategic choices with the map as evidence
            →  assign Pioneer/Settler/Town Planner ownership
            →  hand off to Magi for arbitration if trade-offs exist

Common Strategic Mistakes (the map makes visible)

Mistake Signal on the map Correction
Building custom what is commodity Component in Custom but industry-wide has it in Commodity Buy/rent, reassign team
Managing commodity with Pioneer methodology Genesis methodology applied to known commodity Switch to operational excellence (Town Planner)
Standardizing too early Standard applied to Genesis component Delay; let variants explore
Ignoring higher-order opportunity Commoditized layer sits dormant, no new genesis above Invest in genesis above the commoditized base
Relying on a single vendor for commodity No second source Encourage utility / multi-vendor
Pioneer team reassigned to Town Planner work Wrong structure for stage Rotate people; use PST

Output Template

## Wardley Map: [Anchor user need]

### Anchor
- **User**: [who]
- **Need**: [what job — not a feature]

### Value Chain (top → bottom = visible → invisible)
1. [Component A] — visible to user
2. [Component B] — supports A
3. [Component C] — supports B
4. ...

### Evolution Positions
| Component | Stage | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| A | Custom | [market signal, competitor analysis] |
| B | Product | [multiple vendors exist] |
| C | Commodity | [utility / price competition] |
| ... | ... | ... |

### Map Builder (ASCII or image)

[user need]──[A: Custom]──[B: Product]──[C: Commodity] [D: Custom]─────┘


### Climate & Inertia Findings
- [ ] Component X has inertia — [why]
- [ ] Component Y is positioned wrong (we custom-build but industry-commoditized)
- [ ] Duplication: team α and β both build [Z] — consolidate
- [ ] Higher-order opportunity: commoditized [C] enables new genesis [N]

### Strategic Moves
| Move | Component | Rationale |
|------|-----------|-----------|
| Accelerator: open-source | [X] | force [Y] to commodity |
| Ecosystem: ILC | [platform] | leverage third-parties, fold back |
| Defensive: sunset | [Z] | indefensible position |

### Pioneer / Settler / Town Planner
- **Pioneer team** owns: [genesis components]
- **Settler team** owns: [custom → product transition]
- **Town Planner team** owns: [product → commodity, ops]

### Doctrine Check
- [ ] Anchored at user need
- [ ] Map shared with stakeholders
- [ ] Appropriate methodology per stage
- [ ] Duplication removed
- [ ] Standards applied where appropriate

### Handoffs
- Atlas: architecture follow-through on commoditized / standardized layers
- Shift (`detect`/`modernize`/`radar`): modernization plan for components that must evolve (absorbed from horizon)
- Magi: Go/No-Go on strategic moves
- Spark: genesis opportunities for new features
- Ledger: cost implications of commodity vs custom
- Scribe: written strategy document

Anti-Patterns

Anti-pattern Fix
Drawing a graph, not a map Enforce Y=value, X=evolution; position must mean something
Not anchoring at user need Start with user + job, not technology
Mixing evolution with maturity Evolution = industry-wide stage, not how mature your implementation is
Static map (draw once, forget) Re-map when competitor moves or new commoditization hits
Ignoring inertia Name it explicitly; plan against it
Custom-building commodities Buy/rent; reserve engineers for genesis
Same methodology everywhere Apply experimental / agile / lean / Six Sigma by stage
PST ownership mismatch Rotate Pioneer/Settler/Town Planner by component stage

Deliverable Contract

When wardley completes, emit:

  • Anchor with user and need.
  • Value chain from visible (user-facing) to invisible (supporting).
  • Evolution positions for every component with evidence.
  • Map builder (ASCII or image).
  • Climate & inertia findings.
  • Strategic moves chosen with rationale.
  • Pioneer / Settler / Town Planner ownership assignments.
  • Doctrine checklist.
  • Handoffs: Atlas, Shift (detect/modernize/radar), Magi, Spark, Ledger, Scribe.

References

  • Simon Wardley — Wardley Maps (CC-licensed book, Medium series)
  • Learn Wardley Mapping — learnwardleymapping.com (tutorial)
  • Ben Mosior — Hired Thought blog and YouTube
  • onlinewardleymaps.com — free browser-based mapping tool. The June 2025 modernisation release (docs.onlinewardleymaps.com 2025-06-15) ships a TypeScript rewrite, a resizable split-pane editor, and a simplified DSL with new decorator syntax (legacy maps still parse).
  • Topographical Intelligence for Your Business — HBR write-up of the framework
  • LEF (Leading Edge Forum) — Wardley's original research
  • "Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones" — Wardley's essay on the doctrine
  • Mark Craddock — Learn Wardley Mapping (Medium, Apr 2026) — Claude Code skill benchmarked blind against 25 of Wardley's own published maps; documents the OWM-DSL-as-LLM-target pattern.
  • Mermaid Wardley Map support — community PR landed 2025; LLMs can now emit Wardley diagrams directly into Mermaid blocks for inline rendering.
  • Simon Wardley — Craft Conference 2025 (Budapest, May 2025) keynote on mapping the AI value chain; also Agile Meets Architecture 2025 speaker billing.

2025-2026 AI Tooling for Wardley Maps

Three classes of AI tooling now coexist; treat them as Tier 4 defaults, never as truth:

Class Examples Use Risk
Claude / GPT skills emitting OWM-DSL haberlah/wardley-mapping (Claude Code skill, 2026), IanSimon23/wardley_maps First-draft maps from a scenario description; export to onlinewardleymaps.com LLM may collapse Custom and Product when the industry signal is ambiguous — always demand an evidence column
LLM-in-Mermaid community Mermaid plugin (2025) Inline maps in chat or PR comments No interactive editing; positions are not stable across regenerations
Drag-and-drop with AI coach IanSimon23/wardley_maps, MCP-market "Wardley Strategy Mapping" skill (2026) Workshops and reviews Coach text reflects training-set bias toward AWS / SaaS exemplars; sanity-check on non-software domains

Always require the AI to attach an Evidence column per component (per the Output Template) and to name the inertia it sees — otherwise the map is graph, not map.

Source: SKILL.md on GitHub

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    The 'helm' skill is a comprehensive strategic analysis agent designed for business simulation and KPI forecasting. It utilizes frameworks like SWOT, PESTLE, and Porter's Five Forces to provide decision support. Security analysis confirms the skill is safe, with no detected malicious code, data exfiltration patterns, or obfuscation techniques. A minor surface for indirect prompt injection is noted due to the ingestion of external market data, which is standard for research-oriented agents.

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